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Place dossier plate
SheetAZ-SURPRISE-AZ · Surprise, AZ 149,519 pop · income 73rd pct
Instrument codes from this place’s ACS population and household income, BEA state COL, FBI safety, national income percentile, photo-finish peer city, home-value band, and matched Census-tract book - not a moving recommendation.
Income neighbourhood around Surprise
Lowest/highest poles plus peers nearest Surprise on median household income. Full ladder: /browse and /rankings.
median HH income
Jackson · lowest
43,238
Jackson · lowest
43,238 median HH income
28.6% of the leader · rank #1
Valley Bend · near
93,352
Valley Bend · near
93,352 median HH income
61.8% of the leader · rank #2
North Pole · near
93,355
North Pole · near
93,355 median HH income
61.9% of the leader · rank #3
Surprise · this city
93,371
Surprise · this city
93,371 median HH income
61.9% of the leader · rank #4
Oxnard · near
93,372
Oxnard · near
93,372 median HH income
61.9% of the leader · rank #5
Van Alstyne · near
93,373
Van Alstyne · near
93,373 median HH income
61.9% of the leader · rank #6
Naperville · highest
150,937
Naperville · highest
150,937 median HH income
100.0% of the leader · rank #7
What this shows Neighbourhood peers only - not a full nationwide city board. Open a near peer when the gap is small; open the poles when the spread is wide.
Compare beyond this state
Nationwide peers by population, income, and FBI crime rate
Out-of-state nearest neighbors for Surprise on ACS population and median household income
, plus FBI UCR reporting rate when the extract covers this place. Link sets are deduped so each column is a distinct comparison path, not a forecast that peers share a labor market or climate.
Similar population
Nearest out-of-state cities by ACS population. This city: 149,519.
Agency-reported UCR totals per 100,000 population, not a neighborhood safety grade or a prediction of personal risk.
Surprise - the verdict
Surprise ranks in the 73rd percentile for household income and the 64th percentile for safety nationally, out of every US city with at least 1,000 residents. Source: Census ACS + FBI UCR.
73rd
percentile, household income
77th
percentile, home value
64th
percentile, median rent
64th
percentile, safety
📝 How we sourced this
Population, income, and housing-cost figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year estimates (B-series tables). Crime data uses FBI UCR; climate uses NOAA Climate Normals; school counts come from NCES Common Core of Data; permits use the Census Building Permits Survey (BPS). See our methodology page for the full ETL pipeline and OMB / FIPS join keys.
Data Snapshot: Surprise, AZ
Census ACS 2023 estimates count 149,519 residents in Surprise, a mid-sized U.S. city within Arizona. Median household income here is $93,371 per year, above the median for U.S. cities on this measure, with a poverty rate of 5.3%. Typical homes in Surprise are valued around $396,000, and the median resident age is 41.6 years. 31.0% of adults here have a bachelor's degree or higher; 55.3% of working-age residents are in the labor force.
Housing supply pressure shows in Census Building Permit Survey data: 3,490 residential units were authorized in 2024 (Building Boom), up 80% from five years earlier. Surprise reports a comparatively low crime rate: the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program logs 984.7 total incidents per 100,000 residents here, below the national average (agency reporting is voluntary, so this measures reporting activity, not a definitive danger score).
Arizona tracks close to the national cost-of-living baseline: the state registers 100.7 on a 100-equals-national-average index (Near Average) per BEA Regional Price Parities 2024. A typical two-bedroom carries a HUD Fair Market Rent of $1,419 per month statewide. EIA 2023 residential energy data puts Arizona's average monthly utility costs around $215 (state average). Commute times here average 24.9 minutes, with 70.7% driving alone and 17.6% working from home, per Census ACS commuting data. FEMA's National Risk Index rates natural-hazard exposure at 84.5 out of 100 (High).
A decision-led reading path
Useful questions to ask of Surprise's data
How this reading path is ordered
This is not a composite city score. It is a city-specific route through the available public records, ordered for this profile so the page starts with questions the joined data can actually answer. The route here runs from housing and income to reported crime to population change to schools and households to comparison shortlist to work and mobility; another city can have a different sequence or fewer supported layers because the source joins are not uniform.
For Surprise, city-specific coverage includes local building permits, matched public-school count, FBI reported-crime rates, commute-mode shares, annual population history.
No matched row is reported here for within-city Census tract profiles; the page leaves those layers out instead of substituting a statewide or national value.
1. Housing and income
How far does income reach against housing in Surprise?
This is a citywide price-to-income reference, not a mortgage-affordability test; it does not include interest rates, taxes, insurance, household size, or an individual buyer's down payment. Housing value is high relative to the citywide income median. That flags a question for comparison, not a verdict: tenure, household composition, financing costs, and the age of the ACS estimate can all change what a resident actually pays.
The home-value-to-income reference is comparatively stretched: the ACS median home value is 4.2 times median household income. The ACS poverty estimate is 5.3%, which keeps the citywide median from describing every household.
What can the FBI record say about safety in Surprise?
The joined FBI UCR record reports 984.7 violent and property crimes per 100,000 residents, below the 2280.5 national reference used here. The difference is 57% lower in arithmetic terms, but agency participation is voluntary and reporting completeness varies.
Treat this as a reporting-rate comparison, not a prediction of personal risk or a neighborhood-level safety grade. Tourism, daytime population, reporting practices, and variation inside the city are not adjusted away. The state rank and same-state peer table are the narrower comparisons available on this page.
Is Surprise growing, shrinking, or holding steady?
Census PEP estimates show the population grew by +30,914 residents from 2020 to 2025, a +21.4% change. Separately, Census BPS recorded 3,490 housing units authorized in 2024. PEP and ACS are different Census series, so the trend is kept separate from the headline ACS population.
Recent estimates point upward. Growth can increase housing demand and service needs, but the permit record must move in the same direction before calling it a supply response; the two series measure different things.
Which cities make useful reference points for Surprise?
Use the in-state set to hold state policy and broad price conditions more nearly constant. Use the nationwide size set to ask whether cities with a similar resident count produce different housing, income, or commute outcomes. The income set is a third lens, deliberately separate from population matching. The nationwide peer panel below adds a fourth FBI UCR reporting-rate lens, not personal risk.
Within Arizona, the closest population matches are Tempe (186,419 residents, $77,643 income); San Tan Valley (105,231 residents, $93,642 income); Peoria (194,338 residents, $93,403 income). Outside the state, the closest population matches in this dataset are Naperville, IL (149,424 residents); Pasadena, TX (149,345 residents); Joliet, IL (149,785 residents). A third, income-matched reference set of 6 out-of-state cities sits in the income neighbourhood chart near the Place Dossier plate. These are mechanical peer sets, not claims that the places share a labor market, climate, culture, or metro context.
These joined records add useful context, but they do not need another full-size panel. Each remains a separate measure with its own geography and source boundary.
Schools and households
What does the education layer cover for Surprise?
The city has a broader matched school footprint, but count alone does not describe performance, capacity, program availability, or attendance boundaries. This profile deliberately avoids converting it into an unsupported family-friendliness score.
The NCES join finds 3 public schools within the city match. 31.0% of adults age 25+ hold a bachelor's degree or higher in the ACS estimate. These measures answer different questions: the school count describes local institutions, while adult attainment describes residents and cannot be used as a school-quality rating.
Poverty estimate
5.3%
Bachelor's degree+
31.0%
Matched public schools
3
NCES Common Core of Data school locations plus Census ACS resident characteristics.
What does the journey to work look like in Surprise?
Driving alone is the largest reported mode at 70.7%. The reported mean trip to work is 24.9 minutes.
Mode share answers how workers usually travel; it does not measure congestion, reliability, distance to a particular job, or the quality of transit service. Remote work has a visible role in the local pattern. That can reduce commute exposure for some workers, but it says nothing about job availability or broadband quality; read it alongside income and housing rather than as a stand-alone lifestyle score.
Drive alone
70.7%
Work from home
17.6%
Public transit
0.1%
City-level Census ACS commuting estimates covering 65,383 workers age 16+.
Above median income · poverty 5.3% (Below-median poverty)
Cost of Living Index (state)
100.7 (US=100)
Above-average cost · BEA RPP 2024, Arizona average
C+
City profile score · Surprise, AZ
61/100
5 published dimensions · ACS/FBI 2023
Comparative score against U.S. cities with population of 1,000 or more on Census ACS medians
(income, poverty, bachelor's share, cost of living) and FBI UCR violent-crime rates when
published. Higher means a stronger standing on those published figures, not a livability
rating, not a recommendation to move, buy, or pick a "best" city. Missing inputs drop out
and redistribute weight.
How it is calculated.
Household income B
$93,371
Median household income vs U.S. cities (pop ≥1,000); ACS.
Violent crime B-
109 /100k
FBI UCR violent offenses per 100,000 residents; lower is stronger on this axis.
Poverty rate C+
5.3%
Share of residents below the poverty line; lower scores better on this axis.
Bachelor's+ share C+
31.0%
Adults with a bachelor's degree or higher; ACS.
Cost of living F
100.7 index
BEA state Regional Price Parities index (100 ≈ national average); lower is stronger on this axis. Same value for every city in the state.
Surprise profile (scored ACS/FBI dimensions)Read the chart values
Household income: 73/100 (B) · $93,371
Violent crime: 69/100 (B-) · 109 /100k
Poverty rate: 63/100 (C+) · 5.3%
Bachelor's+ share: 60/100 (C+) · 31.0%
Cost of living: 37/100 (F) · 100.7 index
Where Surprise sits on home value vs crime among peer cities
Surprise's median home value and FBI crime rate plotted with similar-size and
same-state peers (padded with large cities when the peer set is thin). The second
read: pricey does not always mean safer, check which quadrant this city lands in.
Census ACS median home value vs FBI UCR crime rate - Surprise highlighted among 11 peers.Read the chart values
Surprise, AZ (this city): home $396,000, crime 985/100k
Naperville, IL : home $509,900, crime 967/100k
Pasadena, TX : home $193,600, crime 2,918/100k
Joliet, IL : home $248,600, crime 1,595/100k
Escondido, CA : home $663,500, crime 1,919/100k
Mesquite, TX : home $226,500, crime 3,478/100k
Tempe, AZ : home $421,900, crime 3,364/100k
Peoria, AZ : home $429,400, crime 1,460/100k
Goodyear, AZ : home $441,900, crime 1,645/100k
Buckeye, AZ : home $384,100, crime 938/100k
Yuma, AZ : home $209,100, crime 1,671/100k
How does Surprise compare to other US cities?
Here's how Surprise stacks up against the full field of US cities (population 1,000+), computed live from Census and FBI data.
Household income73% higher than other cities
Home value77% pricier than other cities
Median rent64% pricier than other cities
Safety64% safer than other cities
"Safer than" reflects total crime rate from FBI UCR; the others use Census ACS estimates.
National percentiles can mask local variation. Looking only at Arizona, Surprise ranks #13 of 61 Arizona cities by lowest crime rate - a narrower, more locally useful cut than the national comparison above.
How we calculate these percentiles & ranks
Each percentile compares Surprise against every qualifying US city; each in-state rank narrows that to Arizona only. Full formula and direction notes: methodology.
Arizona-relative analysis
Median Gross Rent places Surprise near the bottom of Arizona's cities
Among the 394 Arizona cities PlainCities tracks with reported median gross rent data, Surprise ranks #1 - the 0th percentile within the state. This is a different, narrower cut than the nationwide percentiles above: it compares Surprise only against its own state's cities, not the full US field.
Median Household Income
#44 of 333
87th percentile in Arizona
Median Gross Rent
#1 of 394
0th percentile in Arizona
Median Home Value
#54 of 327
83rd percentile in Arizona
Poverty Rate
#250 of 393
36th percentile in Arizona
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
#79 of 394
80th percentile in Arizona
How in-state ranks are ordered
Ranked by raw value (highest first); a higher rank is not automatically "better" for every measure, see each metric's own context above. This is a comparison within Arizona only, not a livability score. See the methodology for the source and calculation.
Gauge source note
73rd percentile nationally for median household income · 64th percentile for safety (lower crime rate). Source: Census ACS 2023 / FBI UCR 2023.
Surprise's profile vs. every US city
Income, affordability, and safety percentile
Surprise's percentile rank on 3 favorable-direction measures (income, affordability, safety) vs. every tracked US city -- higher on every axis is more favorable. Not a composite quality score, just the arithmetic mean of the axes shown.
How Surprise's home value compares nationally
Median home value vs. every US city (population 1,000+)
$396,00023rd percentilemore affordable than 23% of 15,600 US cities
Show national distribution
Each bar is a $25K-wide band; taller bars hold more US cities. The dashed line + filled bar mark this entry. Hover or tap any bar for its full count, share, and where it sits relative to this entry.
Source U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · 2023
Surprise's home-value-to-income ratio: 4.2×
ACS median home value divided by median household income.
Band
moderate
3.0–5.0×
National rank
#11,361 of 15,516
More affordable than 27% of tracked cities (pop. 1,000+)
Size class
#347 of 750
Mid-size cities (50,000–199,999)
At 4.2×, Surprise sits in the moderate band:
national rank #11,361 of 15,516 and #347 of 750mid-size cities (50,000–199,999).
Income and home value move in the same broad scale; check same-state peers before treating the multiple as an advantage or a warning.
How this ratio is calculated
Ratio = Census ACS 2023 median home value ÷ median household income for cities with both fields and population ≥ 1,000.
Rank 1 = lowest ratio (most compact). Bands match the fleet affordability thresholds used on guides (<3.0 / 3.0–5.0 / >5.0).
This is not a mortgage payment estimate and does not include rates, taxes, insurance, or down payment.
Income distribution context
$93,371Surprise, AZ median household income (Census ACS)
Show U.S. national quintile / Lorenz context Surprise, AZ median household income (Census ACS 5-year) with U.S. national quintile shares for context. Diagonal = equality; the curve is national, not computed for Surprise, AZ.
Key socioeconomic indicators
Bachelor's degree or higher (adults 25+)31.0%
Census ACS S1501, educational attainment
Poverty rate (households below FPL)5.3%
Census ACS S1701, poverty status
Labor force participation (adults 16+)55.3%
Census ACS S2301, share of working-age residents in the labor force
Population
149,519
Median Income
$93,371
Median Home Value
$396,000
Median Age
41.6
Poverty Rate
5.3%
Labor force participation
55.3%
Bachelor's Degree+
31.0%
Safety & Crime
Total Crime Rate
984.7
per 100,000 residents
Violent Crime
109.1
per 100,000 residents
Property Crime
875.6
per 100,000 residents
Crime reporting caveat
Reflects incidents reported to the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting program — agency participation is voluntary and reporting completeness varies by jurisdiction and year, so this reflects reporting activity, not a definitive danger score. Not adjusted for tourism, commuter, or daytime population.
Schools
Total Schools
3
Public schools in this city
Population Change
PEP vintage
Annual U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP) estimates, 2020–2025
Surprise's Census PEP population estimates, 2020–2025.Read the chart as text
Period
Population
2020
144,390 residents
2021
149,570 residents
2022
154,358 residents
2023
159,171 residents
2024
167,602 residents
2025
175,304 residents
Housing Supply
BPS source
Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (BPS) - annual residential permits authorized
📈 Building Boom
Total Permits (2024)
3,490
housing units authorized
Single-Family
3,140
detached homes
Multifamily
350
apartments & condos
Supply Intensity
23.3
permits per 1,000 residents
5-Year Permit Trend (2019–2024)
Year
Total
Single-Family
Multifamily
Est. Value
2019
1,944
1,715
229
$570.0M
2020
2,515
2,468
47
$769.2M
2021
2,699
2,685
14
$912.8M
2022
3,026
2,228
798
$943.1M
2023
2,772
2,397
375
$884.7M
2024
3,490
3,140
350
$1315.2M
Permit volume increased 80% from 2019 to 2024.
Commute Patterns
Commute source
How workers travel to work, Census ACS 2023
Average Commute Time
24.9 minutes
Drive Alone
70.7%
Carpool
9.2%
Public Transit
0.1%
Walk
0.8%
Work from Home
17.6%
Other
1.6%
Based on 65,383 workers 16 and over.
Monthly Utility Costs
Arizona statewide monthly utility average (EIA 2023): $215
EIA 2023 residential energy data puts average monthly utilities across Arizona at $215 (electricity about $131 , water and sewer about $50 ).
These are Arizona statewide averages, not a meter reading for Surprise. Actual bills vary by home size, usage, and local rates. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2023.
Living Costs & Risk
Arizona's BEA cost-of-living index is 100.7 (Near Average; US average = 100, RPP 2024). HUD Fair Market Rent for a typical two-bedroom in the county around Surprise is $1,419/mo. FEMA's National Risk Index, averaged to Arizona statewide on PlainCities, rates natural-hazard exposure at 84.5 / 100 (High).
Cost/risk geography note
Cost of living is a Arizona statewide BEA average; rent is a county-level HUD Fair Market Rent for the county Surprise sits in; the FEMA hazard score shown here is a statewide average of county NRI inputs, not a parcel-level reading.
How Surprise compares to similar-size Arizona cities
Same-state peer method
Closest same-state population matches, not geographic neighbors. Population + median household income come from Census Bureau ACS 5-year B01001 and B19013.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year 2023, FBI UCR, NCES CCD, Census BPS 2024, Census ACS B08301/B08136, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2023, BEA Regional Price Parities 2024, HUD Fair Market Rents 2026, FEMA National Risk Index.