Census tract · Fairfax County
Census Tract 4515.02, Fairfax County, Virginia
Census Tract 4515.02, GEOID 51059451502, in Fairfax County, Virginia, entirely within Bailey's Crossroads. 5,186 residents in the ACS 2020-2024 5-year estimates (±566); the 2020 Census counted 4,924.
Residents, 2020-2024
5,186
±566 (90% margin)
2020 Census count: 4,924
Median household income
$82,370
±$22,463 (90% margin)
Fairfax County: $153,637
Median home value
$636,600
±$57,531 (90% margin)
Fairfax County: $732,800
Median gross rent
$2,137
±$155 (90% margin)
Fairfax County: $2,276
Where is Census Tract 4515.02?
Census Tract 4515.02 is one of 274 census tracts in Fairfax County, Virginia. It covers 0.70 square miles of land, 7,065 residents per square mile in 2020. Its GEOID, 51059451502, names it uniquely (how tract numbers and GEOIDs work).
| Place | Share of the tract |
|---|---|
| Bailey's Crossroads | 100% |
9 census tracts border Census Tract 4515.02: Tract 1021 in Arlington County ($122,679), Tract 1022 in Arlington County ($71,579), Tract 1028.03 in Arlington County ($73,153), Tract 1028.04 in Arlington County ($95,739), Tract 4515.01 ($85,350), Tract 4516.01 ($73,125), Tract 4527 ($105,114), Tract 4528.01 ($83,819) and Tract 4528.02 ($96,213). The figure in brackets is each tract's median household income.
Whether a tract counts as low- or moderate-income for bank lending (the Community Reinvestment Act) is set by the FFIEC against its metro area's family income: look it up in the FFIEC census geocoder.
Source: 2024 Gazetteer and 2020 block assignment files, U.S. Census Bureau · Census reference files
How many people live in Census Tract 4515.02?
The 2020-2024 American Community Survey puts Census Tract 4515.02's population at 5,186 (±566) in 2,295 households; the 2020 Census counted 4,924 residents and 2,149 housing units.
| Measure | Tract 4515.02 | Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| Total population | 5,186 ±566 | 24,271 |
| Households | 2,295 ±200 | 9,494 |
| Average household size | 2.24 ±0.15 | 2.54 |
| Housing units | 2,393 ±196 | 10,020 |
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026); 2020 Census P.L. 94-171 · Check it at data.census.gov
Who lives in Census Tract 4515.02?
The median resident of Census Tract 4515.02 is 39.1 years old; 19.9% are under 18 and 20.7% are 65 or older. The largest group is non-Hispanic white residents at 40.4%, then Hispanic or Latino residents (of any race) at 34.6%. 36.3% of residents were born outside the United States.
| Measure | Tract 4515.02 | Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| Median age | 39.1 ±5.4 | 36.9 |
| Under 18 years | 19.9% ±2.8 pts | 24.2% |
| 65 years and over | 20.7% ±4.4 pts | 15.0% |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 34.6% ±7.5 pts | 34.4% |
| White alone, not Hispanic | 40.4% ±7.4 pts | 26.3% |
| Black or African American alone, not Hispanic | 9.7% ±7.8 pts | 17.0% |
| Asian alone, not Hispanic | 6.1% ±3.3 pts | 12.2% |
| American Indian and Alaska Native alone, not Hispanic | 0.0% ±0.8 pts | 0.0% |
| Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, not Hispanic | 0.0% ±0.8 pts | 0.0% |
| Two or more races, not Hispanic | 5.0% ±3.2 pts | 8.9% |
| Some other race alone, not Hispanic | 4.1% ±4.4 pts | 1.1% |
| Born outside the United States | 36.3% ±8.6 pts | 49.6% |
| Speak a language other than English at home (age 5+) | 47.9% ±9.2 pts | 62.2% |
| Civilian veterans (age 18+) | 6.7% ±3.6 pts | 4.4% |
| With a disability | 13.4% ±5.4 pts | 10.4% |
| No health insurance coverage | 16.0% ±6.2 pts | 19.4% |
| High school graduate or higher (age 25+) | 90.8% ±5.0 pts | 79.1% |
| Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+) | 57.3% ±9.0 pts | 45.3% |
| Graduate or professional degree (age 25+) | 26.9% ±8.7 pts | 22.5% |
| Lived in the same house a year earlier | 86.9% ±4.9 pts | 87.7% |
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026) (Data Profiles DP02, DP05) · Check it at data.census.gov
What do households in Census Tract 4515.02 earn?
Half of the 2,295 households in Census Tract 4515.02 earn less than $82,370 a year (±$22,463), against $153,637 across Fairfax County: 260th highest of the county's 270 tracts with a reliable estimate. 22.4% of residents live below the poverty line.
| Measure | Tract 4515.02 | Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| Median household income | $82,370 ±$22,463 | $88,483 |
| Mean household income | $105,685 ±$16,079 | $114,271 |
| Per capita income | $47,594 ±$7,797 | $45,424 |
| People below the poverty line | 22.4% ±8.5 pts | 22.5% |
| Children under 18 below the poverty line | 27.8% ±17.3 pts | 34.5% |
| Households receiving SNAP | 8.7% ±5.1 pts | 12.4% |
| Households with a computer | 97.7% ±2.5 pts | 96.7% |
| Households with a broadband subscription | 80.3% ±7.4 pts | 89.3% |
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026) (Data Profile DP03) · Check it at data.census.gov
What does housing cost in Census Tract 4515.02?
Owners occupy 27.7% of Census Tract 4515.02's occupied homes and renters 72.3%. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $636,600 by its owner (±$57,531). The median renter pays $2,137 a month including utilities, and 48.5% of renters pay 35% or more of their income on rent.
| Measure | Tract 4515.02 | Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| Median home value (owner-occupied) | $636,600 ±$57,531 | $416,600 |
| Median gross rent | $2,137 ±$155 | $2,021 |
| Renters paying 35% or more of income on rent | 48.5% ±12.3 pts | 49.5% |
| Median monthly owner costs, with a mortgage | $2,378 ±$799 | $2,565 |
| Owner-occupied homes | 27.7% ±7.6 pts | 48.0% |
| Renter-occupied homes | 72.3% ±7.6 pts | 52.0% |
| Housing units | 2,393 ±196 | 10,020 |
| Single-family detached homes | 7.6% ±3.4 pts | 11.8% |
| Mobile homes | 0.0% ±1.7 pts | 0.2% |
| Built 2020 or later | 1.5% ±2.1 pts | 0.3% |
| Built 2010 to 2019 | 13.5% ±6.8 pts | 5.2% |
| Built 1939 or earlier | 1.0% ±1.4 pts | 1.4% |
| Households with no vehicle | 19.3% ±5.5 pts | 12.7% |
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026) (Data Profile DP04) · Check it at data.census.gov
How do people in Census Tract 4515.02 get to work?
35.4% of Census Tract 4515.02's workers drive alone and 28.8% work from home. The average trip to work takes 26.1 minutes.
| Measure | Tract 4515.02 | Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| In the labor force (age 16+) | 61.1% ±7.4 pts | 68.2% |
| Unemployment rate | 16.2% ±11.3 pts | 8.1% |
| Drove alone to work | 35.4% ±8.5 pts | 49.2% |
| Carpooled | 16.4% ±9.9 pts | 11.7% |
| Public transportation | 11.7% ±9.0 pts | 11.0% |
| Walked | 3.7% ±3.3 pts | 3.0% |
| Worked from home | 28.8% ±9.6 pts | 19.1% |
| Mean travel time to work | 26.1 min ±3.1 | 27.5 min |
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026) (Data Profile DP03) · Check it at data.census.gov
How does Census Tract 4515.02 compare with the other tracts in Fairfax County?
Among Fairfax County's tracts with a reliable estimate, Census Tract 4515.02 ranks as shown below (1 = highest).
| Measure | In Fairfax County | In Bailey's Crossroads |
|---|---|---|
| Population | 79th of 271 | 3rd of 5 |
| Residents per square mile | 76th of 274 | 5th of 5 |
| Median household income | 260th of 270 | 4th of 5 |
| Per capita income | 237th of 271 | 3rd of 5 |
| Median home value | 167th of 263 | 2nd of 5 |
| Median gross rent | 194th of 248 | 2nd of 5 |
| Poverty rate | 4th of 70 | 2nd of 5 |
| Bachelor's degree or higher | 202nd of 270 | 2nd of 5 |
| Median age | 160th of 271 | 3rd of 5 |
| Owner-occupied share | 246th of 266 | 4th of 5 |
The tracts next to it on Fairfax County's income ladder
| Tract | Rank | Median household income |
|---|---|---|
| Tract 4154.01 | 257th | $85,114±$24,548 · within the margin of this tract |
| Tract 4528.01 | 258th | $83,819±$21,355 · within the margin of this tract |
| Tract 4217.01 | 259th | $83,808±$23,396 · within the margin of this tract |
| Tract 4515.02 | 260th | $82,370±$22,463 |
| Tract 4216 | 261st | $81,317±$11,698 · within the margin of this tract |
| Tract 4823.02 | 262nd | $81,130±$16,327 · within the margin of this tract |
| Tract 4917.03 | 263rd | $80,833±$25,269 · within the margin of this tract |
"Within the margin": the two incomes differ by less than their combined 90% margins, so the survey cannot say which is higher and the ranks between them are not firm.
Source: PlainCities ranks computed from the American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026) · How ranks are computed
How reliable are the figures for Census Tract 4515.02?
1 of the 18 figures for Census Tract 4515.02 on this page carries a coefficient of variation over 40% and is marked with a ring: they come from a small sample, so read them as rough.
A census tract's figures rest on a few hundred sampled households over five years, so its margins are wider than a city's. Two tracts differ only when the gap between them is larger than their combined 90% margin (the square root of the sum of the two squared margins). How to read a margin of error.
Source: American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates, U.S. Census Bureau (released January 2026): margins of error as published · Check it at data.census.gov
How these figures are made: methodology and release checks · reading a margin of error · every state · corrections